Rates briefly moved below ~6% earlier in 2026, then returned to mid-6%, delaying a bigger refinance wave for recent mortgage borrowers for now.
At low-6% pricing, ~33% of 2023–2025 borrowers could benefit from refinancing, with avg. annual savings of ~$2.3K before weighing closing costs carefully.
If rates revisit ~6%, the share could reach ~57%, creating a timely reason to review past clients' loan details and goals today.
Recent buyers are not equal: ~38% of 2023 borrowers could benefit, versus ~35% from 2024 and ~25% from 2025 at low-6% pricing.
Closing costs often run 2%–6%, so a half-point rate drop still needs fee, break-even, and monthly savings checks before any refinance recommendation.
